ANN and ARMA based thunderstorm prediction over Andhra Pradesh using INSAT 3D Satellite
N. Umakanth1, G.Ch. Satyanarayana2, I. V. S. S. K. Kiran3, V. Kartheek Sai4, D. Mercy5
1N. Umakanth, Department of Atmospheric Science, K L University, Vaddeswaram, India.
2G. Ch. Satyanarayana, Department of Atmospheric Science, K L University, Vaddeswaram, India.
3I. V. S. S. K. Kiran, Department of Electronics and Communications Engineering, K L University, Vaddeswaram, India.
4V. Kartheek Sai, Department of Electronics and Communications Engineering, K L University, Vaddeswaram, India.
5D. Mercy, Department of ECE, K L University, Vaddeswaram, India..
Manuscript received on November 12, 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on November 25, 2019. | Manuscript published on 30 November, 2019. | PP: 4723-4727 | Volume-8 Issue-4, November 2019. | Retrieval Number: D8595118419/2019©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.D8595.118419
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Extreme events such as severe thunderstorms, heat waves, cyclones, heavy rainfall events are increasing day by day in recent years over India. Out of all extreme events, thunderstorms are causing more damage and deaths when compared to others. Thunderstorms are tougher to be predicted in advance due to their faster development. In this paper, we tried to analyse two severe thunderstorm cases in premonsoon season for the time period 2017 and 2018 by using INSAT-3D satellite data. This satellite data helps us to monitor the convective cloud system every 30 minutes. Using this satellite data we are able to calculate the atmospheric indices like LI, KI, TTI and HI for every 30 minutes. After being analyzed by INSAT-3D satellite data, we tried to predict the peak stage of thunderstorms using ANN and ARMA techniques. The atmospheric based stability indices have been used as inputs for ANN & ARMA models inorder to achieve prediction. ANN prediction was better than ARMA prediction when compared to INSAT-3D satellite data.
Keywords: Thunderstorm, Atmospheric Indices, Brightness Temperature, Rainfall .
Scope of the Article: Regression and Prediction.