Modeling of Economic Risks of an Industrial Enterprise using a Tree of Logical Possibilities
Mihail Nikolaevich Dudin1, Elena Anatolievna Reznik2, Valery Nikolaevich Alferov3, Nataliya Vladimirovna Vysotskaya4, Igor Aleksandrovich Moshkin5
1Mihail Nikolaevich Dudin, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), 76, Prospekt Vernadskogo, 76, Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), 82, Vernadsky Prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation
2Elena Anatolievna Reznik, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), 82, Vernadsky Prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation
3Valery Nikolaevich Alferov, Financial University Under the Government of the Russian Federation (Financial University), Leningradskij Prospekt, Dom № 49. Moskva, 125468, Russian Federation
4Nataliya Vladimirovna Vysotskaya, National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation; Russian University of Transport (RUT (MIIT), Obraztsova Str, d. 9, p. 9, Moscow, 127994, Russian Federation
5Igor Aleksandrovich Moshkin, Moscow Metropolitan Governance University, Sretenka, 28, Moscow, 107045, Russian Federation
Manuscript received on 07 March 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 14 March 2019 | Manuscript published on 30 July 2019 | PP: 4095-4100 | Volume-8 Issue-2, July 2019 | Retrieval Number: B3057078219/19©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijrte.B3057.078219
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The aim of the study is to simulate the probability of occurrence of economic risks in industrial enterprises using trees of logical possibilities, and the subsequent ability to manage them. To solve the set goal, the method of expert survey was used. The expert evaluation was carried out by the ranking method to determine the probability of occurrence of each of the economic risk components. The expert evaluation involved executives of industrial enterprises and managers of commercial banks. According to the research results, the risk assessment of an industrial enterprise should be focused on the study of the impact of primary economic risks. This can be done by building a tree of logical possibilities (usually called also logic tree) of occurrence of industrial, commercial, and financial risk components of the industrial enterprise. Visualization of the study using trees of logical possibilities along with conducted expert survey will help to establish quickly and clearly the levels of risk components and predict the state of the enterprise based on the actual circumstances.
Index Terms: Economic Risk, Industrial Enterprise, Risk Assessment, Risk Management, Tree of Logical Possibilities.
Scope of the Article: Simulation Optimization and Risk Management